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新概念英语第三册51 Predicting the future

2021-09-25 14:54:00来源：网络

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　　What was the 'future' electronic development that Leon Bagrit wasn't able

　　to foresee?

　　Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. Who could have imagined, in

　　the mid 1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would

　　be as common in people's homes as TV sets? In the 1970s, computers were common

　　enough, but only in big business, government departments, and large

　　organizations. These were the so-called mainframe machines. Mainframe computers

　　were very large indeed, often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing

　　full-time technicians and run on specially-written software. Though these large

　　machines still exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small

　　powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.

　　In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA. It

　　can properly be described as the first 'home computer' and it pointed the way to

　　the future. This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an

　　Apple. In the early 1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first

　　Personal Computer. This ran on an "operating system" called DOS, produced by a

　　then small company named Microsoft. The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied.

　　From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly

　　home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.

　　Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable

　　that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict

　　some of the uses of computers which we know today. Bagrit dismissed the idea

　　that computers would learn to 'think' for themselves and would "rule the world",

　　which people liked to believe in those days. Bagrit foresaw a time when

　　computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable

　　of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes,

　　when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when

　　they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical

　　work. All these computer uses have become commonplace. Of course, Leon Bagrit

　　could not possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide

　　system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the

　　world by using computers linked to telephone networks. Nor could he have

　　foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known

　　subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if

　　we want to. Computers have become smaller and smaller, more and more powerful

　　and cheaper and cheaper. This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions

　　particularly remarkable. If he, or someone like him, were alive today, he might

　　be able to tell us what to expect in the next 50 years.

　　New words and expressions 生词与短语

　　notoriously

　　adv. (尤指因坏事)众所周知地

　　full-time

　　adj. 专职的

　　technician

　　n. 技师

　　software

　　n. 软件

　　IBM

　　(美国)国际商用机器公司(International Business Machines)

　　DOS

　　磁盘操作系统(Disk Operating System)

　　Microsoft

　　n. (美国)微软公司

　　user-friendly

　　adj. 容易操作的，好用的

　　mainframe

　　n. 主机，中央处理机

　　multimedia

　　adj. 多媒体的

　　alternative

　　adj. 选择的

　　diagnose

　　v. 诊断

　　relieve

　　v. 减轻

　　accountant

　　n. 会计

　　repetitive

　　adj. 重复的

　　clerical

　　adj. 办公室工作的

　　Internet

　　n. 国际交互网

　　network

　　n. 网络

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